The Morning Slate — Daily probabilities for European football

UEFA Europa League

Rangers v Jagiellonia

Thu 13 Aug

19:00

The Morning Slate's strongest view

Under 3.5 · 74.9%

Well calibrated at this confidence level— 301 past predictions in this bucket; observed 73% vs claimed 73%

Result

Away win40.2%
Hashac0bc180…
Home win32.5%
Hash6a4aa61d…
Draw27.3%
Hasha67775fc…

Total goals

Over 1.573.8%
Hash8a1caf3d…
Under 2.553.3%
Hash05c1f36a…
Under 3.574.9%
Hash1e8e0e7d…

Both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes51.4%
Hash55dfcd23…

Additional context — editorial

InjuryRangers manager Derek McInnes reports an injury to striker Youssef Chermiti following a 2-1 home defeat by Hibernian. McInnes is seeking Rangers' first win after three games. source
InjuryYoussef Chermiti ruled out for a significant period with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) damage. The injury occurred shortly after Rangers rejected an offer for the striker. source
InjuryRangers striker Youssef Chermiti ruled out for a significant period with an ACL injury sustained in Sunday's match against Hibernian. source

Calibration

Pro

How accurate is this kind of prediction historically?

Pro users see which calibration bucket this prediction sits in, its observed hit rate, and sample size — the same numbers we publish on the trust ratchet.

Read what Pro buys →

Market context

Pro

Pinnacle benchmark + best available across other bookmakers.

Pro users see Pinnacle's no-vig fair line as the sharp benchmark plus the highest price across other EU-region books, with the offering bookmaker named.

Read what Pro buys →

Head-to-head

Pro

Recent meetings between Rangers and Jagiellonia.

Pro users see recent head-to-head fixtures between Rangers and Jagiellonia, with dates, competitions, and scores.

Read what Pro buys →

Form (last 5)

Pro

Recent form for Rangers and Jagiellonia.

Pro users see the last 5 fixtures for Rangers and Jagiellonia, with results and goal totals from each side.

Read what Pro buys →

Starting lineups

Pro

Announced starting XI for Rangers and Jagiellonia.

Pro users see the announced starting XI, substitutes, and coach for both teams once lineups are released — typically about an hour before kickoff.

Read what Pro buys →

Expected goals

Pro

Sportmonks xG, xGOT, and xGA per side for Rangers and Jagiellonia.

Pro users see expected goals (xG), expected goals on target (xGOT), and expected goals against (xGA) per team — the same xG signal the model trains against.

Read what Pro buys →

Match facts

Pro

Per-team match statistics for Rangers and Jagiellonia.

Pro users see twelve per-team match statistics — shots, possession, passes, cards, corners, fouls, offsides, and saves.

Read what Pro buys →