The Morning Slate — Daily probabilities for European football

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln

Fri 4 Sep

18:30

The Morning Slate's strongest view

Over 1.5 · 85.4%

Slightly over-confident at this range— 990 past predictions in this bucket; observed 85% vs claimed 88%

Result

Home win60.6%
Implied 68.0%Hashe2e7f101…
Away win19.8%
Implied 16.1%Hash34d79a33…
Draw19.6%
Implied 19.5%Hash2336e683…

Total goals

Over 1.585.4%
Hash55357a77…
Over 2.566.4%
Implied 73.0%Hash05f3ad2a…
Under 3.555.7%
Implied 50.0%Hash2f2a516e…

Both teams to score

Both teams to score: yes59.6%
Implied 66.2%Hash31d809c3…

Additional context — editorial

InjuryVfB Stuttgart striker Tiago Tomas will be unavailable until after the international break. The Portuguese forward will not be available for Stuttgart in the coming weeks. source
diary.note_categories.other_materialVfB Stuttgart hosts 1. FC Köln at home after suffering a defeat to Bayern Munich on matchday 1. source

Calibration

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How accurate is this kind of prediction historically?

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Market context

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Pinnacle benchmark + best available across other bookmakers.

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Head-to-head

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Recent meetings between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln.

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Form (last 5)

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Recent form for VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln.

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Starting lineups

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Announced starting XI for VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln.

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Expected goals

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Sportmonks xG, xGOT, and xGA per side for VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln.

Pro users see expected goals (xG), expected goals on target (xGOT), and expected goals against (xGA) per team — the same xG signal the model trains against.

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Match facts

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Per-team match statistics for VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln.

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